“St. Totteringham’s Day on April 30th, save the date!”

Will we get to celebrate St. Totteringham’s Day again this season? According to these statistics, the answer is YES! Based on the past three league results versus their remaining league opponents, I have made a prediction on how the current top three in the league will finish their season. Arsenal have by far the easiest schedule remaining and also have a game in hand. Obviously I am hoping that we will outperform these statistics and win the league eventually, but according to these statistics we will challenge Leicester to the very end but they might just win the league by a narrow margin. However, we will finish above Spurs!

predictions

I’ve based the prediction on who has the easiest schedule remaining on the current league position of the remaining opponents that Leicester, Spurs and Arsenal will face in the league this season. With an average of 13, Arsenal have an easier set of games remaining than both Leicester and Tottenham, who both face an opponent who is in place 10 in the league on average.

Furthermore, I’ve looked up the past three league results of Leicester, Spurs and Arsenal against their remaining opponents, and divided that by three to calculate the expected number of points each of the three teams will collect during the remainder of their league campaigns. According to that calculation, Arsenal will pick up 20 points from their remaining 9 games, where Leicester will pick up 11 from their last 8 and Spurs just 7. If this ends up to be reality, Leicester will win the league with 77 points, closely followed by Arsenal in second place with 75 points. Spurs will end up in Arsenal’s shadow as so often with 68 points.

If this was all to become reality, that means we will finish 7 points ahead of Spurs. That will mean we will be sure to end up above Spurs after round 36 where we face Norwich. Which means the traditional St. Totteringham’s Day will be celebrated on Saturday April 30th.

Yes, I am absolutely hoping that we will outperform this prediction and still win the league. Leicester will have to do a little worse than expected and we will have to live up to these expectations at the very least. If Tottenham perform similar to these statistics or worse, we won’t have to fear them for much longer.

While you were reading this, I have already placed some beers in the fridge for April 30. Cheers!

Image Credits: Ronnie Macdonald, CC BY 2.0 license.

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1 Comment

  1. Sounds great but it’s April 1st!

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